LED chip industry fluctuations in the overall upward trend, the mainland leading enterprises strong constant
LED chip industry overall fluctuations upward
In terms of long-period dimensions, LED chips continue to develop under the drive of “Haizi's Law” and alternately infiltrate in various fields such as backlighting, lighting, and display. The application fields and market size continue to expand. In the short-cycle dimension, due to the mismatch between the supply and demand of LED chip production capacity and the negative feedback caused by the amplification effect caused by over-subscription in the industry chain, the LED chip industry also has periodic characteristics under the supply and demand game.led tube light
Short-term view: 1H2018 supply and demand resonance, LED chip earnings are relatively stable
As far as the supply side is concerned, with the rational expansion of the leading manufacturers, it is expected that the 1H2018 global LED chip production capacity will only increase by about 5% compared to 4Q 2017 (without considering the capacity withdrawal); in terms of demand side, LED lighting is expected to reach 2018. With a year-on-year increase of around 10%, the small gap in LED displays maintains a growth rate of around 30%, while other segments such as automobiles also have the potential for rapid growth. In general, it is expected that the demand side will have an increase of 8 to 9%. Therefore, the 1H2018 LED chip supply and demand are in a weak equilibrium, and prices will remain in order.led bulb light
Medium- and long-term perspective: LED applications continue to expand, and future price declines will slow down
The penetration rate of LED lighting market is expected to continue to increase, and small-pitch LED displays will maintain high growth rates. Micro LED/Mini LED is expected to open up LED growth space, and downstream applications will blossom, and the demand for corresponding LED chips is expected to maintain high growth. speed. At the same time, it is expected that in the future, the marginal benefits of improving light efficiency will gradually decrease, and the improvement of light efficiency will slow down. Therefore, the cost reduction will also slow down. In the medium and long term, the decline in the price of LED chips will tend to be flat.led flame light
Capacity transfer, mainland China LED chip leader Hengqiang
With the support of local governments, mainland LED chip manufacturers rely on the advantages of capital and scale to actively expand their production. The shift of LED chip production capacity to the mainland has resulted in a significant increase in industry concentration. According to LEDinside, in 2017, the mainland accounted for 58% of global production capacity. The top three manufacturers accounted for 68% of the total capacity of the mainland. In recent years, the domestic production of MOCVD equipment has benefited domestic leaders to consolidate their competitive advantages. At the same time, Sanan Optoelectronics, Huacan Optoelectronics and other leading upstream integrated sapphire substrates, and mainland LED chip leader Qiangqiang Hengqiang.
Dalian Xinghai Technology Co., Ltd.